Nakhon Pathom 1-2 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom host Chiangrai United at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Pathom stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 home games — 1.83 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nakhon Pathom are significantly better at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nakhon Pathom at 1.10 PPG versus Chiangrai United's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, Chiangrai United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Nakhon Pathom trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Chiangrai United trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 77% and Chiangrai United 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 69% | Chiangrai United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.59 xG and Chiangrai United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.963 / defence 1.098 | Chiangrai United attack 0.796 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.290. Data: 13 Nakhon Pathom games / 42 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 47% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 26%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangrai United 3.85. Nakhon Pathom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Pathom as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 83% | Chiangrai United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 47% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.59 / Chiangrai United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.963 / def 1.098 | Chiangrai United attack 0.796 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Chiangrai United xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 2 Chiangrai United.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 47% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nakhon Pathom's attack at 0.96x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.61
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.71
1.13
Chiangrai United xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
5%
19.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.13 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nakhon Pathom come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 4D 5L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Pathom on 1.23 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nakhon Pathom's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Nakhon Pathom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.08 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Defensively: Chiangrai United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Chiangrai United away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.83 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Nakhon Pathom or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Pathom have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2025, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Chiangrai United 3-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nakhon Pathom at 83%, Chiangrai United at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Nakhon Pathom and 67% for Chiangrai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 33%; Chiangrai United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 50% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 67% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chiangrai United defy the odds to beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.59 xG and Chiangrai United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chiangrai United outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Chiangrai United attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 13/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 47% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 26%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Chiangrai United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 69%, Chiangrai United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 1.23 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.