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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nakhon Pathom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Nakhon Pathom 1-3 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 0.95 xG and Buriram United 2.14 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 2.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.69 / defence 1.23 against Buriram United attack 1.50 / defence 0.78, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 15% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 64%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 62%, Buriram United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Buriram United's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights