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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Muangthong United defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.25 xG and Uthai Thani 1.31 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.69 / defence 1.23 against Uthai Thani attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 33% | Draw 32% | Uthai Thani 36%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Muangthong United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 52%, Uthai Thani 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.15 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights