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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Uthai Thani.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Uthai Thani 2-0 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.71 xG and Uthai Thani 1.07 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Uthai Thani landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Uthai Thani attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 52% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 24%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 68%, Uthai Thani 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.58 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights