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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayong FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Muangthong United 1-3 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.09 xG and Rayong FC 1.70 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rayong FC outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.75 / defence 1.47 against Rayong FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 24% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 51%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 52%, Rayong FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.26 PPG, Rayong FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayong FC win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights