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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Muangthong United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rayong FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Rayong FC 4-0 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.15 xG and Rayong FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayong FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Rayong FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 45/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 67% | Draw 21% | Rayong FC 12%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 44%, Rayong FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Rayong FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights