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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Muangthong United 1-3 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.31 xG and Ratchaburi 1.16 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Ratchaburi attack 1.26 / defence 0.84, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 38% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 31%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 50%, Ratchaburi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.53 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights