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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Muangthong United 1-4 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.26 xG and Prachuap 0.93 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Prachuap outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Prachuap attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 42% | Draw 34% | Prachuap 25%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 49%, Prachuap 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.41 PPG, Prachuap 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights