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Stalemate at Muangthong United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Muangthong United and Port FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.29 xG and Port FC 2.05 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Muangthong United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Port FC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.78 / defence 1.41 against Port FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 23% | Draw 24% | Port FC 54%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 53%, Port FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Port FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights