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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Muangthong United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Muangthong United 1-2 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.45 xG and Port FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Port FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 43% | Draw 27% | Port FC 30%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 65%, Port FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.67 PPG, Port FC 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights