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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.67 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.85 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 75% | Draw 16% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 9%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 44%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights