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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.26 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 41% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 54%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.18 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights