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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-0 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.23 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.88 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 67% | Draw 20% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 12%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 55%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.45 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights