🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Muangthong United 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat Muangthong United 2-3 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.16 xG and Chonburi FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.75 / defence 1.43 against Chonburi FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 30% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 36%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 46%, Chonburi FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.00 PPG, Chonburi FC 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights