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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Muangthong United defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Chiangrai United 2-1 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.17 xG and Chiangrai United 1.57 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.72 / defence 1.13 against Chiangrai United attack 1.24 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 26% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 44%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Muangthong United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 52%, Chiangrai United 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.17 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights