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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Chiangrai United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Chiangrai United 2-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.59 xG and Chiangrai United 0.71 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Chiangrai United attack 0.68 / defence 1.35, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 77% | Draw 15% | Chiangrai United 8%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 65%, Chiangrai United 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights