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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Muangthong United 0-5 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.49 xG and Buriram United 1.92 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Muangthong United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Buriram United outscored their 1.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Buriram United attack 1.38 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 27% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 45%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 50%, Buriram United 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Buriram United's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights