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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ayutthaya FC edge out Muangthong United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ayutthaya FC beat Muangthong United 0-1 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.47 xG and Ayutthaya FC 2.22 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Muangthong United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ayutthaya FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.83 / defence 1.49 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 24% | Draw 23% | Ayutthaya FC 53%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 53%, Ayutthaya FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Muangthong United's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Muangthong United 0.87 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights