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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.49 xG and Uthai Thani 1.58 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Uthai Thani attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 30% | Uthai Thani 37%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 54%, Uthai Thani 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.07 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights