Lamphun Warrior 1-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 47%, yet in-form Uthai Thani provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani meet at Lamphun Warriors Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 5W 2D 3L at Lamphun Warriors Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Lamphun Warriors Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Uthai Thani's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Uthai Thani arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Uthai Thani and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 63% and Uthai Thani 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 67% | Uthai Thani 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.85 xG and Uthai Thani 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.980 / defence 1.022 | Uthai Thani attack 0.985 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.824 / away 1.418. Data: 30 Lamphun Warrior games / 30 Uthai Thani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 47% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 29%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Uthai Thani 3.45. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Uthai Thani (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 90% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 47% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.85 / Uthai Thani 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.980 / def 1.022 | Uthai Thani attack 0.985 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.824 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Uthai Thani xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 47% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani?
Record (2 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.98) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.98x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.17
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.28
1.43
Uthai Thani xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
5%
21.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.43 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 9W 8D 13L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. Lamphun Warrior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Uthai Thani's form line: 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. Uthai Thani haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.17 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 5W 2D 8L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.30 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
Uthai Thani
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Uthai Thani away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.60 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Lamphun Warrior, 53% for Uthai Thani — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lamphun Warrior and 73% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 53% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 73% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Uthai Thani 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.85 xG and Uthai Thani 1.43 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Uthai Thani landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Uthai Thani attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 47% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 29%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 67%, Uthai Thani 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.17 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.