Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani meet at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 May 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 6W 2D 2L at Mae Guang Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Mae Guang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Uthai Thani in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Uthai Thani and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 63% and Uthai Thani 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 63% | Uthai Thani 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.13 xG and Uthai Thani 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.044 / defence 1.135 | Uthai Thani attack 1.061 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.152. Uthai Thani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Lamphun Warrior games / 27 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 54% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 24%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Uthai Thani 4.17. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Uthai Thani 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 54% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.13 / Uthai Thani 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.044 / def 1.135 | Uthai Thani attack 1.061 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Uthai Thani xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 2 Uthai Thani.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 54% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani?
Record (1 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.04) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (1.06x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
54%
1.87
23%
4.37
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.52
1.39
Uthai Thani xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
12%
8.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
3%
35.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.39 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 8W 7D 12L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani's form line: 8W 8D 11L from 27 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.19 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 4W 2D 7L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.37 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Uthai Thani away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.85 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Lamphun Warrior, 54% for Uthai Thani — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Lamphun Warrior and 69% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 54% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 69% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Uthai Thani defy the odds to beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.13 xG and Uthai Thani 1.39 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Uthai Thani attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 54% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 24%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Uthai Thani win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 63%, Uthai Thani 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.15 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.