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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lamphun Warrior run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sukhothai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior beat Sukhothai FC 3-0 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.79 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sukhothai FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 56% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 20%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 51%, Sukhothai FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.04 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights