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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC finished level at 2-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.36 xG and Rayong FC 1.56 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.02 / defence 1.34 against Rayong FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 30% | Rayong FC 39%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 54%, Rayong FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.07 PPG, Rayong FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights