Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 37%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Prachuap travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 3 for Prachuap and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 68% versus Prachuap 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 48% | Prachuap 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.28 xG and Prachuap 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.954 / defence 1.321 | Prachuap attack 0.846 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.133. Data: 32 Lamphun Warrior games / 31 Prachuap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 36%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Prachuap 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Prachuap 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.28 / Prachuap 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.954 / def 1.321 | Prachuap attack 0.846 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Prachuap xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 37% chance of winning, Prachuap a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Record (8 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 4 | Prachuap 3W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.74
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.55
1.27
Prachuap xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.27 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 4W 17D 10L from 31 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 8L across 31 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Prachuap by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 2W 10D 3L from 15 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 10L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 11W 12D 8L in their last 31 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Prachuap away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.07 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Prachuap in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Prachuap have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 73%, Prachuap 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamphun Warrior) and 47% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 53% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 47% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.