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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap finished level at 1-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.44 xG and Prachuap 1.16 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 41% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 28%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 49%, Prachuap 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.09 PPG, Prachuap 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights