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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Port FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior beat Port FC 3-2 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.08 xG and Port FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Port FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 30% | Port FC 38%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 54%, Port FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Lamphun Warrior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights