Lamphun Warrior 3-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Port FC to Lamphun Warriors Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Lamphun Warriors Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lamphun Warrior at 1.50 PPG versus Port FC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Port FC 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 54% and Port FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 54% | Port FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.08 xG and Port FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.822 / defence 0.980 | Port FC attack 1.044 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.177. Data: 56 Lamphun Warrior games / 54 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 30% | Port FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Port FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 40% | Port FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 30% | Port FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.08 / Port FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.822 / def 0.980 | Port FC attack 1.044 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Port FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Port FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Lamphun Warrior 3 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 32% chance of winning, Port FC a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 2 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.82) and Port FC's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
32%
3.13
30%
3.36
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.28
1.20
Port FC xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.20 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 16D 21L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 27W 16D 11L from 54 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (13W 6D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Port FC have gone 10W 11D 6L from 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.09 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 69%.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Port FC have gone 27W 16D 11L in their last 54 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Port FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.67 PPG; Port FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 59%, Port FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamphun Warrior) and 59% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 70% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 59% of Port FC's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Port FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Port FC in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Port FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Port FC 3-2 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.08 xG and Port FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Port FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 30% | Port FC 38%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 54%, Port FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Lamphun Warrior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.