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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lamphun Warrior run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-0 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.89 / defence 1.36 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.06 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights