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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom finished level at 1-1 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.42 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.02 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 45% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 27%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 57%, Nakhon Pathom 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.21 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights