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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.89 xG and Muangthong United 1.38 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.14 / defence 1.28 against Muangthong United attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 26%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 53%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Muangthong United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.17 PPG, Muangthong United 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights