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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Muangthong United run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Lamphun Warrior.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Lamphun Warrior 1-5 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.41 xG and Muangthong United 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Muangthong United outscored their 0.98 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Muangthong United attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 45% | Draw 30% | Muangthong United 25%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Muangthong United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 59%, Muangthong United 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Muangthong United's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights