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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC finished level at 2-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Chonburi FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Chonburi FC attack 0.68 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 50% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 24%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 100%, Chonburi FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chonburi FC scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights