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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 0.94 xG and Buriram United 1.62 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Buriram United attack 1.47 / defence 0.71, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 22% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 53%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 54%, Buriram United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Buriram United's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights