🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior and Bangkok United finished level at 1-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 0.95 xG and Bangkok United 1.26 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Bangkok United attack 0.98 / defence 0.64, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 27% | Draw 31% | Bangkok United 42%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 50%, Bangkok United 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Bangkok United's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights