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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Lamphun Warrior 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Lamphun Warrior 0-1 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.38 xG and Bangkok United 1.85 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bangkok United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Bangkok United attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 28% | Draw 25% | Bangkok United 47%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 60%, Bangkok United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bangkok United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Bangkok United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights