🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Khon Kaen United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Khon Kaen United 1-4 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.12 xG and Prachuap 1.08 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Prachuap outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.66 / defence 1.08 against Prachuap attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 35% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 33%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 53%, Prachuap 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 0.92 PPG, Prachuap 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights