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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Khon Kaen United defy the odds to beat Muangthong United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khon Kaen United beat Muangthong United 2-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.10 xG and Muangthong United 1.67 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.57 / defence 1.15 against Muangthong United attack 1.21 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 25% | Draw 25% | Muangthong United 50%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Khon Kaen United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 54%, Muangthong United 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Muangthong United's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Khon Kaen United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights