🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Khon Kaen United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chiangrai United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khon Kaen United beat Chiangrai United 3-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.78 xG and Chiangrai United 2.01 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chiangrai United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.85 / defence 1.45 against Chiangrai United attack 1.11 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 34% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 43%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Khon Kaen United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 56%, Chiangrai United 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 0.85 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights