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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC finished level at 1-1 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.29 xG and Rayong FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Rayong FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 32% | Draw 33% | Rayong FC 35%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 36%, Rayong FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights