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Stalemate at Kanchanaburi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kanchanaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC finished level at 0-0 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.65 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.71 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kanchanaburi fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 1.09 / defence 1.32 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 37% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 39%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 33%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights