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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Kanchanaburi run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kanchanaburi beat Muangthong United 3-0 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.43 xG and Muangthong United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kanchanaburi beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Muangthong United attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 42% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 30%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 38%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Muangthong United's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kanchanaburi 0.69 PPG, Muangthong United 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kanchanaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights