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Dominant Kanchanaburi run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lamphun Warrior.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kanchanaburi beat Lamphun Warrior 4-0 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.28 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.44 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Kanchanaburi beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 31% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 38%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kanchanaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 20%, Lamphun Warrior 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lamphun Warrior arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Kanchanaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kanchanaburi scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights