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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kanchanaburi and Bangkok United share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Kanchanaburi and Bangkok United drew 3-3 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.28 xG and Bangkok United 1.69 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Kanchanaburi beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bangkok United outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Bangkok United attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 28% | Draw 27% | Bangkok United 46%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 0%, Bangkok United 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bangkok United shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights