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Shock result as Ayutthaya FC defy the odds to beat Kanchanaburi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ayutthaya FC beat Kanchanaburi 1-2 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.64 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 45% | Draw 29% | Ayutthaya FC 26%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Ayutthaya FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 33%, Ayutthaya FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kanchanaburi 0.78 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights