🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Sisaket United travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.80 xG and Sisaket United 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.989 / defence 0.960 | Sisaket United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Chonburi FC games / 0 Sisaket United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 59% | Draw 26% | Sisaket United 15%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Sisaket United 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights