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Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Chonburi FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Chonburi FC 0-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.50 xG and Ratchaburi 2.01 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Ratchaburi attack 1.28 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 27% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 48%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 0%, Ratchaburi 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.00 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights