Chonburi FC vs Prachuap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Prachuap at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Chonburi FC) versus 1.70 (Prachuap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 3 for Prachuap and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Prachuap in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 55% versus Prachuap 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 45% | Prachuap 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.44 xG and Prachuap 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / defence 0.957 | Prachuap attack 0.852 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Chonburi FC games / 31 Prachuap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 49% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 23%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Prachuap 4.35. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 60% | Prachuap 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 49% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Chonburi FC 1.44 / Prachuap 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / def 0.957 | Prachuap attack 0.852 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Prachuap xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap part of?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 49% chance of winning, Prachuap a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chonburi FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
Record (8 meetings): Chonburi FC 3W | Draws 2 | Prachuap 3W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.56
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.33
0.89
Prachuap xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.89 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 10W 9D 12L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap's form line: 11W 12D 8L from 31 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.26 PPG, Prachuap on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 3W 6D 6L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 11W 12D 8L in their last 31 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Prachuap away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Prachuap in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 3, Prachuap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 60%, Prachuap 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chonburi FC) and 47% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Prachuap in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Chonburi FC's games and 53% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 47% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.