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Poisson model favours Chonburi FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chonburi FC face Lamphun Warrior.

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Analysis

Lamphun Warrior make the trip to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 April 2027 at 11:30 UTC.

Current Form

Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Chonburi FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Lamphun Warrior (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lamphun Warrior in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across 6 previous meetings, Chonburi FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Chonburi FC winning.

The historical record gives Chonburi FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 57% and Lamphun Warrior 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 47% | Lamphun Warrior 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.45 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.989 / defence 0.960 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.946 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Chonburi FC games / 30 Lamphun Warrior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 47% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 22%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Lamphun Warrior 4.55. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chonburi FC 60% | Lamphun Warrior 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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