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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat Lamphun Warrior 1-0 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.65 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.29 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.97 / defence 1.26, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 45% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 29%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 44%, Lamphun Warrior 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 0.94 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights