Chonburi FC 0-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chonburi FC and Buriram United meet at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's home record at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Buriram United have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.80 for Buriram United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Buriram United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chonburi FC lead 2W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–5 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus Buriram United 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 47% | Buriram United 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.39 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.091 / defence 1.151 | Buriram United attack 1.275 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.228. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Chonburi FC games / 32 Buriram United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 23% | Buriram United 47%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Buriram United 2.13. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 23% | Buriram United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Chonburi FC 1.39 / Buriram United 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.091 / def 1.151 | Buriram United attack 1.275 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Buriram United xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Chonburi FC 0 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Buriram United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 30% chance of winning, Buriram United a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chonburi FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Buriram United?
Record (8 meetings): Chonburi FC 2W | Draws 2 | Buriram United 4W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Buriram United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Buriram United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.27x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
30%
3.37
23%
4.36
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.19
1.80
Buriram United xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
16%
6.06
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
5%
20.44
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.80 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 10W 9D 13L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United's form line: 23W 5D 4L from 32 games, 2.31 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 11W 2D 3L from 16 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.50 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 23W 5D 4L in their last 32 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Buriram United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Buriram United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 5-0 on 14 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
5
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Buriram United?
From 9 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Buriram United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Chonburi FC 0-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Chonburi FC, 69% for Buriram United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chonburi FC) and 81% (Buriram United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Chonburi FC's games and 69% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Chonburi FC's matches and 81% of Buriram United's.
Do Chonburi FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Chonburi FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Chonburi FC 0-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.39 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Buriram United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Buriram United attack 1.27 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 23% | Buriram United 47%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 47%, Buriram United 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.